Baffled Labour loyalists ponder mysterious Blair absence

Baffled Labour loyalists were left with only one question as they left Westminster last Tuesday after losing the big vote on the Censorship in Religious Affairs Bill by a margin of just one: where the hell was Tony Blair? Now bookmakers up and down the UK are asking the same question and gratefully taking money anyone willing to have a punt.

Downing Street has been less than forthcoming on the matter. In a written statement, the Prime Minister's press secretary said: "I'm buggered if I'm saying anything: it might be interpreted as stirring up racial hatred and I could be banged up for seven years." Ken Baxter, a philanthropic bookie from Hull, confirmed exclusively to The Rockall Times that the market is wide open. Speaking from behind John McCririck's sideburns, Mr Baxter said: "No-one has the foggiest idea where he was. I took £100 from a bloke who thought he was standing behind John Prescott and they just didn't see him." With such speculation, there is no clear favourite. Here are some of the most heavily fancied bets:

On the bog

Since his good friend George Galloway was only recently evicted from the Big Brother house, it seems more than likely that Blair has met up for a friendly curry along Brick Lane in Mr Galloway's constituency. A healthy dose of donkey madras with lime pickle and a few pints of Kingfisher could easily have seen the Prime Minister ordering the cabinet secretary to get the loo rolls in the fridge asap. On the other hand, Blair has trotted around the globe making Britain more popular in his role as the finest international statesman since Churchill and might reasonably be expected to have developed a tolerance to such things. Forensic tests from the House of Commons gents have so far proved inconclusive.

Best odds available: 11–2 (William Hill)

Doctor's appointment

The classic schoolboy excuse. If correct, this begs the further question of what the problem would seem to be. Many bookmakers are offering odds on specific conditions and treatments. These include:

• Senility and dementia (16–1JF)
• Haemorrhoids (16–1JF)
• Scurvy (25–1)
• Pregnancy test 33–1, 150–1 that result is positive)
• Attention Deficit Disorder (40–1)
• Boob job (60–1)
• Tennis elbow (100–1)

The benches in Westminster are believed by some to have irritated the Prime Minister's piles but others point to the possibility that he has contracted ADD from the President of the United States of America. There is circumstantial evidence to support many such theories and some punters will feel safer opting for the shorter odds on a doctor's appointment in general.

Best available odds: 4–1 (Rockall International Gambling Services)

Paying tax bill

Initially a long shot, but odds dramatically shortened when everyone realised that tax returns were due in on the same day. It is not hard to imagine the Prime Minister sprinting to the nearest Inland Revenue Office, only to be told to wait in a queue for 78 hours before speaking to an abrasive assistant called Doris who can only answer questions about paperclips. After finally submitting his return and being refused any form of acknowledgement whatsoever, it is suspected that Blair might have made it back to the Commons in time but slipped on some of David Blunkett's old P45s (which were strangely lying around on the floor) and twisted his ankle. Then again, if John Prescott is anything to go by, he might have decided not to bother with his tax return at all.

Best available odds: 3–1F (www.allperfectlyaboveboard.com)

On the job

Many believe that Blair nipped out for a quick one with his wife Cherie. There is certainly circumstantial evidence to support this theory: Cherie would have been on her way from arguing a case in the Royal Courts of Justice to her weekly facelift at a private clinic in Chelsea and could easily have stopped off on the way. The Blairs also have a young son, evidence of some sexual activity in recent years. However, the Stud Statesman's more frequent use of his glasses these days is thought to lengthen the odds.

Best odds available: 6–1 (Ladbrokes)

Outside bets

• In the pub with Charles Kennedy: 10–1
• Taking grapes to Ariel Sharon: 15–1
• Morris dancing with Peter Mandelson: 18–1
• Moving gunpowder into cellar beneath House of Lords: 20–1
• Drafting "Intelligence" dossier on Iranian capability to put nuclear missiles on the moon in 45 days: 33–1

Previously

• Blair 'fired up and hell-bent'
• Labour secures Historic Victory™
• Missing Briton found alive after tsunami ordeal